Financial forecasting reminds me of the weather – you make your forecast at a moment in time based upon the information and assumptions available, you draw a conclusion and state your forecast. But then, the information changes and it is now raining and you are caught without your umbrella!
Forecasting, unlike the weather, isn’t a science but it is not pure guess work either. It is:
- A combination of knowing your business;
- Understanding your market place;
- Knowing what you want to accomplish in the future, and;
- Common Sense.
Every small business will need to make reliable financial projections at one time or another. This forecasting is critical at many stages of a company’s life span:
- When looking for financing
- Gauging the potential profitability of a new product or service
- Trying to determine the impact of staff expansion or cutback, or;
- When it needs to assess other important business decisions.
But let’s take it one step at a time – creating an accurate forecast for the remainder of the year. There are a lot of components to think about when forecasting and it all boils down to the following five steps:
- Review Actual Year-To-Date Results
The best place to start is to see where you have been. If you use an accounting program like QuickBooks you can print out a Profit & Loss statement showing year-to-date results. Make sure that the statement captures all financial transactions that have occurred to the date of the report and reconciles to your bank statements. If you don’t use an accounting program, then add up your year-to-date cash receipts from customers and total expenditures. Take the difference and this should equal your profit or loss.
Examine each line item to make sure that it makes sense – is your year-to-date revenue figure where you thought it should be or has it fallen short? Are expenses higher than they should be for this time of year? This exercise will really get you thinking about your business!
- Establish Goals and Incorporate into Your Forecast
Now that you have seen where you have been, what is it you wish to accomplish by the end of the year? Launch a new product or service, increase revenue on existing products or services, decrease spending, hire a new employee, launch a marketing campaign which will position the company for the beginning of next year?
Whatever your goals are write them out and then decide on the most important three (3) to five (5) goals you wish to accomplish by the end of the year. Determine what steps need to be taken to make those goals become reality, determine which Profit & Loss line item those goals impact and adjust your forecast accordingly. For example, your goal is to increase revenue by 10% before the end of the year or launch a marketing campaign whose benefits will be felt in the first quarter of 2006.
- Forecast Variable Costs
Variable costs are those costs that change in step with revenues. For example, you are selling more widgets therefore your labor costs and materials costs will increase in relation to the revenue increase.
Using the concept of Forecast = Projections + Predictions, combined with the knowledge that variable costs change in step with revenues, forecast each month’s variable costs. Forecast each line item separately, looking for opportunities to reduce costs, and being aware of likely future influences on these costs.
Note: A projection is an extension of the past into the future and predictions reflect your best understanding and your educated guesses about future changes, uncertainties and unpredictable events.
- Forecast Fixed Expenses
Fixed costs are those costs that recur month to month and tend to relatively stable. For example, rent, telephone, internet connection, etc.
Using the same concept we used to forecast variable costs, use the Forecast = Projections + Predictions, combined with the knowledge that fixed expenses tend to be relatively stable and do not change in step with revenues, to forecast the month’s fixed expenses. Again, forecast each line item separately, looking for opportunities to reduce costs, and keeping in mind the likely future influences on these costs.
- Forecast Net Profit
The final step is to evaluate what your forecast is projecting for a net profit for the month. Decide if the profit forecast is reasonable and acceptable. If not re-evaluate the forecast for each line item, including revenues, and make appropriate adjustments. Also, if possible anticipate non-operating income and expense items, and include them in your forecast.
Your forecast may not be perfect at first, but we didn’t’ learn to walk without falling down. We may get a few bumps along the way but I can guarantee you that setting your financial projections down on paper and revisiting them frequently keeps them in your consciousness and helps you to achieve them.